F1 2024 Preview – Red Bull Dominance; Pressure on Hamilton & Ferrari 

You’ll be forgiven for thinking that much has changed in the F1 world when looking at the upcoming season. For the first time in the sport’s history, exactly the same drivers and teams will be lining up for the first Grand Prix of the season – 2^nd March, Bahrain – as did the final Grand Prix of last season. It’s rare for at least a handful of teams not to shake up their pack in the offseason, but the consensus for everyone going into 2024 seems to be business as usual. 

Of course, the big narrative in F1 right now is about a driver changing teams, but that won’t happen until next season when Lewis Hamilton joins Ferrari. We will deal with Hamilton’s defection a little later. But, for now, it’s enough to say that 2024 is promising more of the same. That’s borne out in the F1 betting for the new season, where the utterly dominant Max Verstappen and Red Bull are odds-on to do the same as they did in 2023. That spells good news for the reigning world champion and his team, but it is problematic for the sport as a ‘product’.  F1 fans are known for their dedication, but the drawing in of the casual fan is key to the sport’s growth. And they tune in when there is real competition between drivers and teams. 

Verstappen dominated like no other driver in F1 history

Verstappen set all kinds of records last season. Moreover, many of the records he broke last season were set by himself the season before. Red Bull won 21 of 22 Grand Prix races last season, and Verstappen won 19 of them, breaking a record that went back to 1952. For individual races, that’s fine. Fans can tune in and watch as the tactical battles take place, even if, ultimately, it’s Red Bull that triumphs in the end. But for the pulsating drama of a fight for the Drivers’ Championship, a lack of rivalry makes the action somewhat dull. 

Can anyone make inroads this year? Bookmakers and F1 pundits aren’t confident that the once-dominant Mercedes team can make the necessary improvements. Mercedes failed to win a single race last season, and the team won just one the year before. What’s more, the team will now race with the knowledge that its star driver, Lewis Hamilton, is jumping ship to Ferrari next season. Hamilton is clearly driven to succeed, and no one will doubt his commitment, but it will hang over every race. It’ll be interesting to see whether Mercedes prioritizes Hamilton or the development of his teammate, George Russell. 

Ferrari drivers must deal with Hamilton’s arrival next year 

As for Ferrari, both Carlos Sainz Jnr and Charles Leclerc will both be racing in the knowledge that Hamilton will join the team next season. The former will have to deal with the fact that Hamilton is replacing him, whereas the latter will have to cope with the knowledge that he will no longer be considered number one on the Ferrari team. Again, these are consummate professionals, but these psychological aspects can impact any elite performer.   

Of course, there will be other intriguing elements to watch out for in the new season. The evergreen Fernando Alonso may continue to show why he is one of the best drivers of his generation by helping Aston Martin punch above its weight. And there is the continued resurgence of McLaren, slowly but surely becoming a force in F1 again. There’s also the question – as we touched upon – of fan fatigue. The schedule will be upped to 24 races for the first time. That could be pulsating if we get a fight for the Drivers’ and Constructors’ Championships. But if it’s another procession for Red Bull, with both titles wrapped up by summer, the 2024 F1 season could quickly become uninteresting.